Eurovision 2011 - Germany: Lena - Taken By A Stranger (Live at the Jury Final)

I forgot I'd filmed the whole of this performance on my camera, so here it is for your enjoyment. Naturally the home crowd went wild for Lena!

Eurovision DVD/Blu-Ray to be released 6th June

If you're suffering from Eurovision withdrawal fear not, the DVD will be released on 6th June! Pre-order it now from Amazon.

Azerbaijan's win was lowest average score for at least 20 years

Azerbaijan's 221 points was the lowest Eurovision winning score since the semi final was introduced in 2004. In 2003 only 26 countries took part and Turkey won with just 167 points (2 points away from Belgium and 3 points behind third-placed Russia).

Bosnia received the full 12 points from 5 countries, Italy 4, but Azerbaijan got top marks from just 3 countries, along with Denmark, Georgia, Ireland and Ukraine (compare this to 16 countries that gave their 12 points to Norway in 2009).

The points were more evenly spread between countries this year. Spain ended in 23rd place with 50 points, the same place they finished in 2009 with just 23 points.

Azerbaijan's average score of 5.14 points per country was the lowest for over 20 years, in stark contrast to Alexander Rybak's average of 9.21 points just two years ago.



AVERAGE SCORES IN THE EUROVISION SONG CONTEST SINCE 1991


2009: Norway - 9.21 (387 points/42 countries voting)

1997: United Kingdom - 9.08 (227/25)
1994: Ireland - 9.04 (226/25)
2001: Estonia - 8.61 (198/23)
2000: Denmark - 8.12 (195/24)
2004: Ukraine - 7.78 (280/36)
2006: Finland - 7.68 (292/38)
1993: Ireland - 7.48 (187/25)
2002: Latvia - 7.33 (176/24)
1999: Sweden - 7.09 (163/23)
1996: Ireland - 7.04 (162/23)
1998: Israel - 6.88 (172/25)
1992: Ireland - 6.74 (155/23)
1991: Sweden - 6.64 (146/22)
1995: Norway - 6.43 (148/23)
2003: Turkey - 6.42 (167/26)
2008: Russia - 6.32 (272/43)
2010: Germany - 6.31 (246/39)
2007: Serbia - 6.31 (268/42)
2005: Greece - 5.9 (230/39)

*2009: Iceland (2nd place) - 5.19 (218/42)

2011: Azerbaijan - 5.14 (221 points/43 countries voting)

Sweden Won The Western Vote - analysis of East/West voting differences

After a break of two years (in which Norway and Germany won) an Eastern European country has again won the Eurovision Song Contest and again people have been quick to blame the 'block vote'. To test this I've removed all the east-European countries from the voting(except Turkey and Israel who've taken part since 1975). These are the results:

1. Sweden 113
2. Italy 100
3. Azerbaijan 99
4. Ireland 95
5. Denmark 86
6. Germany 74
7. Bosnia and Herzegovina 73
8. France 52
9. Romania 51
10. United Kingdom 48
11. Iceland 48
12. Ukraine 46
13. Finland 44
14. Moldova 43
15. Greece 42
16. Serbia 36
17. Hungary 32
18. Austria 31
19. Slovenia 31
20. Spain 28
21. Estonia 25
22. Georgia 25
23. Lithuania 20
24. Russia 17
25. Switzerland 10

So we can see from these results that although Sweden topped the western vote Azerbaijan weren't far behind in 3rd place. We see much higher results for Ireland, Germany and France in the west European voting and much lower placings for Ukraine, Greece, Georgia and Russia. The full west European voting results are available here.

EASTERN EUROPE RESULTS

In the east European voting we see Ukraine, Georgia, Greece, Slovenia and Russia doing much better than in west European, whilst Sweden, Germany, France and Ireland fare much worse.

1. Azerbaijan 122
2. Ukraine 113
3. Italy 89
4. Georgia 85
5. Greece 78
6. Sweden 72
7. Slovenia 65
8. Russia 60
9. Moldova 54
10. Bosnia and Herzegovina 52
11. United Kingdom 52
12. Serbia 49
13. Lithuania 43
14. Denmark 41
15. Germany 33
16. Austria 33
17. France 30
18. Romania 26
19. Ireland 24
20. Spain 22
21. Hungary 21
22. Estonia 19
23. Finland 13
24. Iceland 13
25. Switzerland 9

Full voting here.

So here are the overall results with the placings for East and West in brackets.

1. Azerbaijan 221 (3rd West/1st East)
2. Italy 189 (2nd West/3rd East)
3. Sweden 185 (1st West/7th East)
4. Ukraine 159 (12th West/2nd East)
5. Denmark 134 (5th West/14th East)
6. Bosnia and Herzegovina 125 (7th West/10th East)
7. Greece 120 (15th West/5th East)
8. Ireland 119 (4th West/19th East)
9. Georgia 110 (22nd West/4th East)
10. Germany 107 (6th West/15th East)
11. United Kingdom 100 (10th West/11th East)
12. Moldova 97 (14th West/9th East)
13. Slovenia 96 (19th West/7th East)
14. Serbia 85 (16th West/12th East)
15. France 82 (8th West/17th East)
16. Russia 77 (24th West/8th East)
17. Romania 77 (9th West/18th East)
18. Austria 64 (18th West/16th East)
19. Lithuania 63 (23rd West/13th East)
20. Iceland 61 (11th West/24th East)
21. Finland 57 (13th West/23rd East)
22. Hungary 53 (17th West/21st East)
23. Spain 50 (20th West/20th East)
24. Estonia 44 (21st West/22nd East)
25. Switzerland 19 (25th West/25h East)

Azerbaijan Wins Eurovision 2011

The win as seen on the big screen in Düsseldorf.

Azerbaijan last night became the 11th winner in a row to win Eurovision after performing in the last 8 songs. Despite the re-introduction of the juries and opening the voting lines at the beginning of the show it still seems a song can't win if it's performed in the first two thirds of the show. Whatever the influence of their place in the running order Azerbaijan were deserving winners, pulling off a confident performance with simple, quite beautiful staging and choreography. El and Nikki's on-stage chemistry was a million times better than last year's 4th-placed Chanee and N'Evergreen of Denmark.
The bookies' favourite France bombed out in 15th place whilst the UK finished 11th, one place behind hosts Germany and also behind Ireland's Jedward. OGAE fan poll winner Hungary finished in 22nd place while one-time favourite Estonia finished second to last.
Italy made an amazing comeback to the contest finishing in 2nd place. Where Europe obviously didn't 'get' France's Corsican opera they lapped up this piece of Italian jazz. We laughed when Italy 'won' the fake test vote in the Jury Final, thinking it one of the most unlikely results, but on the night they weren't far off!
Sweden proved extremely popular, finishing in 3rd place after a smashing performance by Eric Saade, whilst Ukraine completed the top 4, helped no doubt by the 'sand lady'. Greece finished a strong 7th with what many regarded as their weakest entry for years. Even if the song itself wasn't great it was a good performance with some great choreography.
Azerbaijan's 221 points was the lowest winning score since the semi finals were introduced in 2004. Votes were spread out across the scoreboard meaning even last place Switzerland avoided the dreaded nil points (10 of their 19 points came from the UK).
Düsseldorf put on an amazing show. The only thing I felt it was lacking was a proper interval act. It felt like they had offered the spot to the highest-bidding record company.



FINAL RESULTS
1. Azerbaijan 221 points
2. Italy 189
3. Sweden 185
4. Ukraine 159
5. Denmark 134
6. Bosnia & Herzegovina 125
7. Greece 120
8. Ireland 119
9. Georgia 110
10. Germany 107
11. United Kingdom 100
12. Moldova 97
13. Slovenia 96
14. Serbia 85
15. France 82
16. Russia 77
17. Romania 77
18. Austria 64
19. Lithuania 63
20. Iceland 61
21. Finland 57
22. Hungary 53
23. Spain 50
24. Estonia 44
25. Switzerland 19

SEMI FINAL SCORES REVEALED
In a surprise result Greece won the first semi final, ahead of Azerbaijan. Sweden won the second semi with Denmark coming second.
Poor Stella Mwangi of Norway finished in 17th place behind San Marino. To think she was once 4/1 favourite. Belgium and Malta were also surprise 11th place finishers in their respective semi finals.
I think I have learnt my lesson this year about waiting until the day before the final to place my bets. I made a nice return on Azerbaijan but my profit was dented from losses on France and UK and earlier lost bets on Norway and Turkey.
I don't think anyone knows what to expect from an Azeri final next year in Backu. Suffice to say I think they'll manage to pull it off and won't be afraid to try to win again.
If I had to tip a winner for next year already I'd suggest a re-invigorated Sweden, Ukraine, Turkey (who now have something to prove), Russia, one better for Italy or a second win for Azerbaijan.

Tonight's The Night! Eurovision 2011 Grand Final

For some people it's one evening's TV entertainment. But for some of us tonight is the culmination of 6 months following national finals, attending Eurovision preview parties, casting our votes in fan polls, watching rehearsal videos, analysing betting odds and the running order and finally predicting who we think will win the final.

Last night I attended the final dress rehearsal, now renamed the jury final. I can tell you you're in for a treat. The biggest surprise will come in the way Germany has decided to position the green room and announce the votes. Let's just say the audience won't have to be watching the big screens to see the green room action.

Some of the guests delivering points will include Danny Saucedo for Sweden, Safura for Azerbaijan and Ruslana for Ukraine.

The interval act will consist of 2 songs performed by a notable German performer whose name I'm afraid I've forgotten.

PREDICTION TIME

Still the big favourite with the bookies at less than 2/1 my money (literally) is on France to win. The winner is usually something different from the rest and Sognu really does stand out.

France's middle position in the running order could work against them though. For the last 10 years the winner has come from the last 8 songs to perform. The only contender I can see here is Azerbaijan. They seem dead-cert to finish top 4 and a win is not out of the question.

Other countries I expect to place highly are UK, Ireland, Sweden and after a long-held resistance maybe even Hungary and Greece!

It remains to be seen if Ukraine's sand lady will wow audiences enough to give them a top 10 finish and although the crowd will be deafening for Lena's performance it's debatable whether the audience will get it after just one listen.

One thing's for sure, tonight promises to be 3 hours of great entertainment and tomorrow it will all be over for another year  :-(

Results of the 2011 Second Semi Final and draw allocation

Eric Saade made a huge impact in the first half of the show. Twitter went crazy for Eric Saade and he breezed through to the final, restoring Sweden's pride after a year out of the final.

Jedward wowed Europe with a great energetic performance to end the show. They had the best big screen graphics and the glitter explosion at the end was better than the slightly tired pyros everyone else is using.

The 10 countries that qualified for the final and their draw in the final are:

2. Bosnia & Herzegovina
18. Austria
23. Ukraine
15. Moldova
7. Sweden
20. Slovenia
17. Romania
8. Estonia
3. Denmark
6. Ireland

France are still the big favourites with the bookies with odds of less than 2/1 but Jedward are close behind and their odds could shorten further over the next 2 days.

Azerbaijan and the UK make up the top 4 with the bookies. Azerbaijan are in a particularly strong position as the only one of these 4 performing in the 17th-24th position that has provided the winner for the last 10 years. The last winner from Blue's 14th position was 2001.

Bosnia, Estonia and Denmark riding high in the Love Eurovision Twitter poll

The first semi final poll correctly predicted 8/10 qualifiers based on 10 voters. Fifteen people have currently cast their votes in the second semi final poll and Bosnia & Herzegovina, Estonia and Denmark have broken away and are leading the pack by a margin of nearly 20 points.

Here are the current results.

QUALIFIERS

Bosnia 96
Estonia 94
Denmark 92
Ireland 74
Sweden 69
Austria 55
Bulgaria 53
Slovenia 50
The Netherlands 48
Latvia 40

NON-QUALIFIERS

Romania 38
Israel 36
Ukraine 34
Slovakia 32
Belarus 32
Cyprus 19
Moldova 8
FYROM 0
Belgium 0


You can see a full list of the up-to-date voting here.

If you'd like to vote please tweet your votes (12,10,8,7 etc.) @Loveeurovision

Blue in Düsseldorf

Blue have been in Düsseldorf a few days now and as well as rehearsing they've been doing interviews and performing around the city. I've tried to pull together some of the videos that have been popping up on the internet.

Blue performing at the Israeli party at the Euroclub.



Blue performing at the 'Big 5' party.



And here they join the rest of the Big 5 performing Always Look On The Bright Side Of Life.



Here's a video of Blue jamming with Nadine Beiler of Austria and her backing singers. It's a great version of 'I Can' and then moves into a number of other songs. Great video.



Blue interviewed for eurosong.be




Judging by this latest video on the official Eurovision Youtube channel Blue have a lot of support to win!



And judging by this rehearsal footage they might be right!

After Norway crashes out we ask - Is Eurovision Racist?

Even before Norway crashed out of this year's Eurovision Song Contest a few people had said to me, 'they'll never vote for her because she's black'. Now I don't think there is discernible racism in the Eurovision voting but lets have a look at the evidence.

Glennis Grace: The Netherlands 2005: 14th in the semi final - did not qualify.

She was one of the bookies' favourites to qualify and gave an amazing performance but was it racism that led to Glennis not qualifying, or was it simply that big ballads have mixed success at Eurovision?



Glennis has just achieved her first number 1 in the Dutch charts with 'Afscheid'.



Edsilia Rombley: Netherlands 2007: 21st in the semi final - did not qualify

Some people felt this should have qualified but Edsilia finished just one place below pre-contest favourites Switzerland who crashed out in 20th place. She did however come 4th in her previous attempt at Eurovision 1998, so it's hard to level any accusations of racism at that!






Javine: UK 2005: 22nd place

After Turkey's success in the previous year I think many in the UK thought this would do well. But after performing the cursed 2nd spot it seemed even Turkey only slightly agreed (1 point) and Javine finished near the bottom of the scoreboard. This wasn't anything unusual though as the UK had some of its worst results in this period.



Andy Abraham: UK 2008: 25th (last) place

This was the year that Terry Wogan quit claiming eastern Europe had voted for the 'Russian Bear' so that they'd keep their gas supply running! However, 'political voting' aside, it wasn't a great song and again the UK performed in the dreaded 2nd position, meaning a last place finish wasn't really all that surprising.



Enough of these bad results, let's focus now on some successes!

Jessy Matador: France 2010: 12th place

Having not even considered this song before the final I was blown away by this energetic performance. The juries placed Jessy 18th but he came 8th in the public televote, making his overall finishing place 12th.





Jade Ewen: UK 2009: 5th place

After the embarrassment of Andy Abraham's last place in 2008 the BBC decided enough was enough and it was decided to bring in a big name to write the UK entry. Andrew Lloyd Webber and Diane Warren penned 'My Time' and Jade's fantastic performance gained the UK our best result in years. No accusations of racism here.




Imaani: UK 1998: 2nd place!

Coming a year after Katrina & The Waves win Imaani was beaten by just 6 points by Dana International. This in the same year that Edsilia Rombley came 4th for The Netherlands.



Dave Benton: Estonia 2001: 1st place winner!

Now when most people mention racism in Eurovision they point their fingers east. Estonia chose an entry sung by a white guy AND a black guy and guess what, it won!




In summary the influence of race in Eurovision voting seems as subjective as 'political voting'. The evidence seems to suggest just what it does about political/bloc/neighbourly voting - if the song is good enough it will do well regardless.

Results and analysis of Final draw for first semi final qualifiers - Good news for Azerbaijan

Azerbaijan to perform 19th in the final.


Last night the draw took place to decide where the qualifiers from the first semi final will perform in the Eurovision Final on Saturday. This is how the final running order currently looks:

1. Finland
2.
3.
4. Lithuania
5. Hungary
6.
7.
8.
9. Greece
10. Russia
11. France
12. Italy
13. Switzerland
14. United Kingdom
15.
16. Germany
17.
18.
19. Azerbaijan
20.
21. Iceland
22. Spain
23.
24. Serbia
25. Georgia

A country's place in the performance order can have a dramatic impact on their chances. The second spot is notorious for producing bad results while entries performed nearer the end tend to have an advantage. Let's have a look at which spot previous winners performed in:

2010: 22nd - Germany
2009: 20th - Norway
2008: 24th - Russia
2007: 17th - Serbia
2006: 17th - Finland
2005: 19th - Greece
2004: 10th - Ukraine
2003: 4th - Turkey
2002: 23rd - Latvia
2001: 20th - Estonia

So we can see that performing in the last 4 to 7 songs does appear to provide an advantage. Even the introduction of the juries hasn't affected this phenomenon. The strongest country in this pot at the moment is Azerbaijan. They pulled off a confident and, as the UK commentator said, 'beautiful' performance on Tuesday and it now looks a strong contender to win.




Azerbaijan (performing 18th) in the First Semi Final


Other favourites France and UK languish behind in 11th and 14th respectively. Will this damage their chances?

Places 17, 18, 20 and 23 will be filled by qualifiers from semi final 2 so maybe Ireland, Estonia, Sweden, Denmark or Bosnia will provide the winner.

Shock results in the Eurovision 2011 First Semi Final - Norway and Turkey are out!

Well well well, that'll teach me to predict the qualifiers. The final will be missing Norway, Turkey and Armenia. Their places were taken by outsiders Lithuania and Switzerland as well as Serbia. Fan favourite Hungary made it through.

Star of the night has to go to Paradise Oskar who breezed through to the final. His performance drew one of the biggest cheers of the night and Finland's odds with the bookies have rapidly shortened to 5th favourite! Maybe he is this year's Tom Dice after all.

The results (in performance order - full voting will be revealed after the final):

1. Poland
2. Norway
3. Albania
4. Armenia
5. Turkey
6. Serbia - Qualified!
7. Russia - Qualified!
8. Switzerland - Qualified!
9. Georgia - Qualified!
10. Finland - Qualified!
11. Malta
12. San Marino
13. Croatia
14. Iceland - Qualified!
15. Hungary - Qualified!
16. Portugal
17. Lithuania - Qualified!
18. Azerbaijan - Qualified!
19. Greece - Qualified!

The finalists are revealed:



Paradise Oskar's semi final performance:

Norway wins Loveeurovision 1st Semi Final Twitter poll

Earlier today I made a plea on Twitter for your 1st Semi Final votes and you responded in your thousands! Ok, so it was only 10 of you, but here are the results anyway:

Norway 79
Azerbaijan 64
Russia 60
Hungary 55
Switzerland 43
Iceland 42
Turkey 36
Poland 27
Serbia 27
Finland 26

That's our 10 qualifiers - and then:

Georgia 25
San Marino 24
Greece 20
Albania 15
Armenia 15
Malta 8
Croatia 4
Portugal 4
Lithuania 2

You can see the full voting here here.

Eurovision 2011 Semi Final 1 Predictions

Tonight 19 songs will become 10. I've had mixed fortunes at predicting the qualifiers in the past but this is how I currently think things will go.


Definite Qualifiers

Greece - I thought this was a dreadful song when first selected but it's a powerful and confident performance and should breeze through. Eurovision without Greece is about as unthinkable as Eurovision without Sweden but then we all know what happened there last year!

Azerbaijan - Great vocals, good use of backing singers and simple, classy choreography. Holding back on last year's slightly over-the-top staging has actually worked well for them.

Norway - I just can't help smiling when I see Stella Mwangi perform this. My initial contest favourite, Haba Haba fell back in my ratings, which I think was mainly due to its early selection. I'm sure viewers hearing this for the first time will love it. The only problem is Stella performing in the dreaded/doomed 2nd position.

Russia - Bland, generic, arrogant - just a few of the comments I've heard against this song. It's one of my personal favourites this year and I really want a pair of those light-up shoes! Someone let me know where I can get them!

Armenia - Boom Boom, Ding Dong, Haba Haba, Da Da Dum - this really is the year of catchy nonsense titles. This little number seems catchy enough to see Armenia progress once again.

Turkey - Eurovision without Turkey would be like Christmas without turkey; although many countries seem to get on perfectly well without it and most people end up complaining it's a little dry. Anyway, I like this little rock number, even if it IS a litte repetitive and lacking in the true stadium rock feel. Hard Rock Hallelujah this is not!



Probable Qualifiers

Finland - It's difficult to write a song about the environment without sounding cheesy (even Michael Jackson was guilty of this) but this is a nice simple, sweet song that I think the voters of Europe will like. Not quite Tom Dice but shouldn't have too much trouble making the final.

Albania - 12 points for effort, you couldn't ask her to try any harder in this performance. At the bottom of the pile for me until the rehearsals Albania has been a pleasant surprise! I just hope they don't use up all Germany's gas with all that fire!

Iceland - I think this song actually sounded better in Icelandic but it's a nice, enjoyable performance nonetheless.

Georgia - Verging on screeching this is a loud, brash song but has something that makes me think it will go through.



Possible Qualifiers

Hungary - A whole line of previous fan favourite non-qualifiers (Kate Ryan, Paulo Meneguzzi, DJ Bobo) makes me think Hungary will struggle to qualify. The staging doesn't do the song justice and her vocals struggle at times.

Serbia - Never thought I'd see Serbia sending a song like this. It's nice enough but I can't stand the background and I find it hard to remember once I've heard all the other songs.


Outside Chance - Switzerland, Poland


No Chance! - Croatia, Lithuania, Malta, Portugal, San Marino



Video recap of semi final 1 rehearsals.



So in summary, here are the countries I reckon will qualify tonight:

Greece, Azerbaijan, Norway, Russia, Armenia, Turkey, Finland, Albania, Iceland, Georgia.

Google Eurovision 'Predictor' is back

The Google Predictor analyses Google search data and translates that into a score for each country based on search popularity. It correctly predicted Norway's 2009 win and Lena's win last year. Worryingly Jedward are currently topping the chart! Dublin next year?