Sweden - going the same way as the UK was?

You can't say that Sweden doesn't take Eurovision seriously. Melodifestivalen involves most of Sweden's major artists and a few months of prime time Saturday airtime. With the amount of effort Sweden puts in they should be winning every year, but they're not. What's been going wrong?

Last year it was the jury that sent Charlotte Perrelli to Belgrade with 'Hero'. It's arguable that 'Empty Room' by Sanna Nielsen would have done a lot better. This year the jury would have chosen 'Hope & Glory by Måns Zelmerlöw but the public vote shot 'La Voix' to the top of the scoreboard and the winning song.

The United Kingdom languished at the bottom of the scoreboard for years before they decided something really needed to be done. Sweden have come very low two years in a row. Perhaps a change may now be due.

The big 12 that failed to materialise

It was widely tipped that Russia would give 12 points to the UK. In the event Russia gave us just 6 points, 7 to Azerbaijan, 8 to Estonia, 10 to France and 12 to Norway. The only 12 for the UK came from Greece. Despite that, the UK finished in 5th place, our best result for years!

What about the juries?

The juries only voted in the final so the only way to work out the jury effect is to take the result from the semi-finals and times by two. The first number in brakets is their position in the final (once we take out the big 4 + Russia) and the second brakets is their semi-final plus their score.

Here we can see the televoting on it's own for both semi-finals results in the same top 4, albeit in a different order. Sweden and Malta would have done better without the jury vote surprisingly. I would have thought they'd benefit from the jury vote. The two countries that qualified from the semi-finals by the jury vote were Finland and Croatia. In the final Croatia finished in 18th place and Finland finished in last place.

1 (1). Norway - 402 (SF2: 201)
2 (3). Azerbaijan - 360 (SF2: 180)
3 (2) Iceland - 348 (SF1: 174)
4 (4). Turkey - 344 (SF1: 172)
5 (7). Bosnia & Herzegovina - 250 (125)
6 (5). Estonia - 230 (SF2: 115)
7 (6). Greece - 220 (SF2: 110)
8 (21). Sweden - 210 (SF1: 105)
9 (12). Moldova - 218 (SF2: 106)
10. (8). Armenia - 198 (SF1: 99)
11 (18). Malta - 172 (SF1: 86)
12. (9). Ukraine - 160 (SF2: 80)
13 (12). Israel - 150 (SF1: 75)
14. (13). Albania - 146 (SF2: 73)
15. Portugal - 114 (SF1: 57)
Denmark - 138 (SF2: 69)
Romania - 134 (SF1: 67)
Lithuania - 132 (SF2: 66)
Serbia 120 (SF2: 60)*
FYR Macedonia 90 (SF1: 45)*


Semi-final jury results

Finland - 84 (SF1: 84) -* FYR Macedonia would have qualified on televote alone.
Croatia - 66 (SF2: 66) -* Serbia would have qualified on televote alone.

Norway wins!

Not much of a surprise but Norway won by a record number of points, a complete landslide. They gained 387 points, the highest ever, and also 16 twelve points, the most ever. More of a surprise is the rest of the voting. Ukraine and Malta were nowhere to be seen in the top 10. The big surprises were Iceland in 2nd place, UK in 5th place and Estonia in 6th place.

Although being surprised by the voting I still managed to predict 9 out of the top 10 countries, albeit in completely the wrong order. The only country I got correct other than Norway was Romania in 19th place.

Here are the final results (my predicted places are in brackets):

1(1). Norway - 387 (16 out of 42 twelve points - Belarus, Denmark, Estonia, Germany, Hungary, Iceland, Israel, Latvia, Lithuania, Netherlands, Poland, Russia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Ukraine)
2(9). Iceland - 218 (3 twelve points - from Ireland, Malta, Norway)
3(6). Azerbainjan - 207 (1 twelve points - from Turkey)
4(7). Turkey - 177 (6 twelve points - Azerbaijan, Belgium, Macedonia, France, Switzerland, United Kingdom)
5(4). United Kingdom - 173 (1 twelve points - from Greece)
6(14). Estonia - 129 (2 twelve points - from Finland and Slovakia)
7(2). Greece - 120 (3 twelve points - from Albania, Bulgaria, Cyprus)
8(10). France - 107 (0 twelve points)
9(8). Bosnia & Herzogovina - 106 (3 twelve points - from Croatia, Montenegro, Serbia)
10(5). Armenia - 96 (1 twelve points - from Czech Republic)

11(13). Russia - 91 (1 twelve points from Armenia)
12(3). Ukraine - 76
13(16). Denmark - 74
14(N/A). Moldova - 69 (2 twelve points from Portugal and Romania)
15(22). Portugal - 57
16(21). Israel - 53
17(12). Albania - 48
18(24). Croatia - 45 (1 twelve points from Bosnia & Herzegovina)
19(19). Romania - 40 (1 twelve points from Moldova)
20(23). Germany - 35
21(15). Sweden - 33
22(11). Malta - 31
=23(18). Lithuania - 23
=23(17). Spain - 23 (1 twelve points from Andorra)
25(20). Finland - 22

My final prediction

One thing is very easy this year, Norway will win. There's almost no doubt about it, although as we know from previous results nothing is certain in Eurovision. Below that I think it's going to be a very close contest this year. Normally there are quite a few entries I can't stand but this year there are none, only Croatia and Moldova that I mildly dislike.

There's also the small matter of the juries. Will their 50% of the votes wildly differ from the televote, or will they be won over by Svetlana and her muscly Ukrainian dancers? Well anyway, here goes with my prediction for this year's results:


1. Norway
2. Greece
3. Ukraine
4. United Kingdom
5. Armenia
6. Azerbaijan
7. Turkey
8. Bosnia & Herzegovina
9. Iceland
10. France
11. Malta
12. Albania
13. Russia
14. Estonia
15. Sweden
16. Denmark
17. Spain
18. Lithuania
19. Romania
20. Finland
21. Israel
22. Portugal
23. Germany
24. Croatia

Final betting odds

Love Eurovisoin has been following the betting odds for the last two months. They've been very good at predicting the winner over the last few years but there are always one or two countries that catch them out. Last year it was Greece who they had languishing at odds of 32/1 until a week or two before the contest.

Here are the Paddypower odds for the final and a quick analysis of how those odds have changed over the last two months. One note to remember, the bookies odds aren't only based on what they think will happen on the night. The odds also start to tighten as more people start betting on a particular country.

Norway 8/11

Norway's have been broadly steady since the beginning. Two months ago Paddypower was offering 7/4 for a Norwegian win and they've slowly tightened since.

Greece 11/2

Same story with Greece. On 17th March Paddypower were offering 4/1.

United Kingdom 10/1

Two months ago UK were languising at 18/1 and a few weeks later the odds have lengthened to 20/1! With the UK's recent Eurovision record you can forgive Paddypower and the gamblers for not backing them. On 10th May the odds shortened to 14/1 and now we see they are joint 3rd favourite in the bookies' odds.

Turkey 10/1

Turkey's odds have been broadly steady, alternating between 10/1 and 8/1.

Azerbaijan 10/1

The only country to momentarily be ahead of Norway in the odds, on 17th March Paddypower had Azerbaijan at 2/1! By 22nd March it had changed to 10/1 and has mostly stayed there ever since.

Bosnia & Herzegovina 16/1

Now here's an example of one they didn't see. Two months ago Paddypower had Bosnia at 33/1. Their odds quickly began to shorten until they reached 8/1 on 7th May. They stayed there for a while but have now fallen to 16/1.

Ukraine 8/1

Ukraine has see-sawed a bit. Two months ago they were on 25/1, then lengthened to 50/1, then shot up dramatically to 16/1, then fell to 20/1 and now stand at 18/1.

Iceland 18/1

Iceland is another one they didn't see coming. Two months ago 50/1, then 33/1, then 28/1, then 12/1 after the first semi-final. They've now fallen back to 18/1.

France 25/1

Ok you're probably getting bored with reading all this now. Let's just say they've been broadly steady. I won't say anything unless there's been a big change now.

Estonia 40/1

Germany 40/1

Germany has seen the biggest jump of any country. Two months ago they were down at 150/1 to win the final. There they stayed for a few weeks until Dita von Tesse's involvement was confirmed and they shot up to 20/1.

Malta 40/1

Oh dear, you know things are bad when you're on the same odds as Germany. What happened? Two months ago Chiara was one of the favourites on 10/1 but she has slowly fallen, although has taken a big drop in the last few days.

Armenia 40/1

I don't get this, I would have had Armenia as one of the favourites still. They've done consistently well in the last few years and I've heard many people say it's one of their favourites. Starting off at 100/1 two months ago they rose to 80/1, then 33/1 and by the end of the first semi-final they stood at 25/1.

Finland 50/1

Sweden 50/1

Poor Sweden, another bookies' favourite that have been thrown on the scrapheap. Starting off at 16/1 they jumped to 12/1, then down to 14/1, then down down to 20/1 and now down down down down to 50/1!

Albania 50/1

Now, I've just said 50/1 is bad for Sweden, but it represents a huge jump for Albania who were down at 200/1 two months ago.

Denmark 66/1
Spain 66/1 - down from 25/1 two months ago.
Moldova 80/1 - up from 100/1 recently, but down from 50/1 two months ago.
Portugal 80/1
Romania 100/1 - Languished at 125/1 but then suddenly jumped to 40/1 a few days ago. Now settled back.
Russia 100/1 - down from 20/1 two months ago, quickly lengthened in the last few days.
Lithuania 100/1 - down from 50/1.
Israel 125/1 - was 80/1 for a long time and then jumped to 33/1. Plummeted to 100/1 after they drew the cursed 2nd place in the final, despite now having support from Paul McCartney.
Croatia 150/1 - an improvement on the 250/1 Paddypower had been offering before their surprise qualification, but it leaves them bottom of the pile in the final.

Odds taken from Paddypower

Norway 2010? Is it all over before it's even begun?

Alexander Rybak wins the Norwegian national final by a landslide.


In some ways it is. The juries will cast their votes tonight based on the performances during the 2nd dress rehearsal. Therefore by the end of tonight 50% of the Eurovision final votes will have been decided before the live televised show has even begun (although the results won't be revealed until the end of the show, along with the televotes).

Since the MGP final Alexander Rybak has been the overwhelming favourite. He won with 747,888 votes. The second place song only got 121,856! Every fan poll, including the respected OGAE poll, puts Norway at the top. Even the crowd at the Douze Points final held at Retro Bar in London voted Rybak their winner, and they've never successfully chosen the winning song! He's been the bookies' favourite from the beginning and his odds are now as short as 20/21, the shortest ever for a Eurovision final (Dima Bilan was at 4/1 before the final last year)! The Google Eurovision predictor which shows how popular each artist is based on search results has Rybak at the top, closely followed by Hadise. It seems every indicator is pointing to a Norwegian win this year.

I've been certain of a Norwegian win for months but Sakis' amazing performance last night sowed a few seeds of doubt in my mind. The act that may have sealed victory for Norway was the drawing last night of their position in the final. Norway will perform 20th. It's generally accepted that songs which perform towards the end of the show have an advantage.

At the end of the BBC broadcast last night Sarah Cawood suggested to UK final commentator Graham Norton that Greece might just win but Graham said,

"[Greece] is good, it's good, but something
like Norway is just more special".