Can we predict the winner?

It's tempting to read too much into internet polls. In previous years fan polls have favoured songs that either didn't qualify or fared badly in the final, songs such as 'DJ Bobo - Vampires Are Alive', 'Charlotte Perrelli - Hero', 'Kate Ryan - Je t'adore'. I remember distinctly in 1999 Cyprus was leading all the fan polls. That year Cyprus finished 2nd from last with only 2 points from the UK (see video below). The OGAE voting so far heavily favours Norway. That mirrors nearly every poll on the internet, which is a very good indicator Norway will win this year. However, let's look at the OGAE scoreboard from 2008:

1. Sweden 296 (12th in Semi-final 2 - jury wildcard - 15th in final)
2. Switzerland 194 (13th in Semi-final 2 - didn't qualify for final)
3. Serbia 166 (6th place)
4. Armenia 134 (5th place)
5. Ukraine 133 (2nd place)
6. Norway 130 (5th place)
7. Iceland 129 (14th place)
8. Portugal l86 (13th place)
9. Russia 73 (1st place)
10. Romania 62 (20th place)
11. Greece 59 (3rd place)
12. Turkey 39 (7th place)

Sweden was the clear OGAE favourite in 2008, as in many other polls, but only just scraped through to the final thanks to the jury wildcard and crashed out in 15th place. Switzerland, another fan favourite in 2008 didn't even qualify for the final. The winning country, Russia, was only 9th in the OGAE voting. This should make us wary of Norway's clear lead in the OGAE voting, but how does it compare to other ways of predicting the winnner?

Betting Odds

Russia was the bookies favourite last year, followed by Ukraine and Armenia and belatedly, Greece. The bookies have correctly predicted the winning song every year since Greece won in 2005. So, who is the bookies' favourite this year? Norway :-)

Cyprus 1999 - Marlain - Tha'ne Erotas (fan favourite - 22nd place in the final)