Sweden - going the same way as the UK was?

You can't say that Sweden doesn't take Eurovision seriously. Melodifestivalen involves most of Sweden's major artists and a few months of prime time Saturday airtime. With the amount of effort Sweden puts in they should be winning every year, but they're not. What's been going wrong?

Last year it was the jury that sent Charlotte Perrelli to Belgrade with 'Hero'. It's arguable that 'Empty Room' by Sanna Nielsen would have done a lot better. This year the jury would have chosen 'Hope & Glory by Måns Zelmerlöw but the public vote shot 'La Voix' to the top of the scoreboard and the winning song.

The United Kingdom languished at the bottom of the scoreboard for years before they decided something really needed to be done. Sweden have come very low two years in a row. Perhaps a change may now be due.

The big 12 that failed to materialise

It was widely tipped that Russia would give 12 points to the UK. In the event Russia gave us just 6 points, 7 to Azerbaijan, 8 to Estonia, 10 to France and 12 to Norway. The only 12 for the UK came from Greece. Despite that, the UK finished in 5th place, our best result for years!

What about the juries?

The juries only voted in the final so the only way to work out the jury effect is to take the result from the semi-finals and times by two. The first number in brakets is their position in the final (once we take out the big 4 + Russia) and the second brakets is their semi-final plus their score.

Here we can see the televoting on it's own for both semi-finals results in the same top 4, albeit in a different order. Sweden and Malta would have done better without the jury vote surprisingly. I would have thought they'd benefit from the jury vote. The two countries that qualified from the semi-finals by the jury vote were Finland and Croatia. In the final Croatia finished in 18th place and Finland finished in last place.

1 (1). Norway - 402 (SF2: 201)
2 (3). Azerbaijan - 360 (SF2: 180)
3 (2) Iceland - 348 (SF1: 174)
4 (4). Turkey - 344 (SF1: 172)
5 (7). Bosnia & Herzegovina - 250 (125)
6 (5). Estonia - 230 (SF2: 115)
7 (6). Greece - 220 (SF2: 110)
8 (21). Sweden - 210 (SF1: 105)
9 (12). Moldova - 218 (SF2: 106)
10. (8). Armenia - 198 (SF1: 99)
11 (18). Malta - 172 (SF1: 86)
12. (9). Ukraine - 160 (SF2: 80)
13 (12). Israel - 150 (SF1: 75)
14. (13). Albania - 146 (SF2: 73)
15. Portugal - 114 (SF1: 57)
Denmark - 138 (SF2: 69)
Romania - 134 (SF1: 67)
Lithuania - 132 (SF2: 66)
Serbia 120 (SF2: 60)*
FYR Macedonia 90 (SF1: 45)*


Semi-final jury results

Finland - 84 (SF1: 84) -* FYR Macedonia would have qualified on televote alone.
Croatia - 66 (SF2: 66) -* Serbia would have qualified on televote alone.

Norway wins!

Not much of a surprise but Norway won by a record number of points, a complete landslide. They gained 387 points, the highest ever, and also 16 twelve points, the most ever. More of a surprise is the rest of the voting. Ukraine and Malta were nowhere to be seen in the top 10. The big surprises were Iceland in 2nd place, UK in 5th place and Estonia in 6th place.

Although being surprised by the voting I still managed to predict 9 out of the top 10 countries, albeit in completely the wrong order. The only country I got correct other than Norway was Romania in 19th place.

Here are the final results (my predicted places are in brackets):

1(1). Norway - 387 (16 out of 42 twelve points - Belarus, Denmark, Estonia, Germany, Hungary, Iceland, Israel, Latvia, Lithuania, Netherlands, Poland, Russia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Ukraine)
2(9). Iceland - 218 (3 twelve points - from Ireland, Malta, Norway)
3(6). Azerbainjan - 207 (1 twelve points - from Turkey)
4(7). Turkey - 177 (6 twelve points - Azerbaijan, Belgium, Macedonia, France, Switzerland, United Kingdom)
5(4). United Kingdom - 173 (1 twelve points - from Greece)
6(14). Estonia - 129 (2 twelve points - from Finland and Slovakia)
7(2). Greece - 120 (3 twelve points - from Albania, Bulgaria, Cyprus)
8(10). France - 107 (0 twelve points)
9(8). Bosnia & Herzogovina - 106 (3 twelve points - from Croatia, Montenegro, Serbia)
10(5). Armenia - 96 (1 twelve points - from Czech Republic)

11(13). Russia - 91 (1 twelve points from Armenia)
12(3). Ukraine - 76
13(16). Denmark - 74
14(N/A). Moldova - 69 (2 twelve points from Portugal and Romania)
15(22). Portugal - 57
16(21). Israel - 53
17(12). Albania - 48
18(24). Croatia - 45 (1 twelve points from Bosnia & Herzegovina)
19(19). Romania - 40 (1 twelve points from Moldova)
20(23). Germany - 35
21(15). Sweden - 33
22(11). Malta - 31
=23(18). Lithuania - 23
=23(17). Spain - 23 (1 twelve points from Andorra)
25(20). Finland - 22

My final prediction

One thing is very easy this year, Norway will win. There's almost no doubt about it, although as we know from previous results nothing is certain in Eurovision. Below that I think it's going to be a very close contest this year. Normally there are quite a few entries I can't stand but this year there are none, only Croatia and Moldova that I mildly dislike.

There's also the small matter of the juries. Will their 50% of the votes wildly differ from the televote, or will they be won over by Svetlana and her muscly Ukrainian dancers? Well anyway, here goes with my prediction for this year's results:


1. Norway
2. Greece
3. Ukraine
4. United Kingdom
5. Armenia
6. Azerbaijan
7. Turkey
8. Bosnia & Herzegovina
9. Iceland
10. France
11. Malta
12. Albania
13. Russia
14. Estonia
15. Sweden
16. Denmark
17. Spain
18. Lithuania
19. Romania
20. Finland
21. Israel
22. Portugal
23. Germany
24. Croatia

Final betting odds

Love Eurovisoin has been following the betting odds for the last two months. They've been very good at predicting the winner over the last few years but there are always one or two countries that catch them out. Last year it was Greece who they had languishing at odds of 32/1 until a week or two before the contest.

Here are the Paddypower odds for the final and a quick analysis of how those odds have changed over the last two months. One note to remember, the bookies odds aren't only based on what they think will happen on the night. The odds also start to tighten as more people start betting on a particular country.

Norway 8/11

Norway's have been broadly steady since the beginning. Two months ago Paddypower was offering 7/4 for a Norwegian win and they've slowly tightened since.

Greece 11/2

Same story with Greece. On 17th March Paddypower were offering 4/1.

United Kingdom 10/1

Two months ago UK were languising at 18/1 and a few weeks later the odds have lengthened to 20/1! With the UK's recent Eurovision record you can forgive Paddypower and the gamblers for not backing them. On 10th May the odds shortened to 14/1 and now we see they are joint 3rd favourite in the bookies' odds.

Turkey 10/1

Turkey's odds have been broadly steady, alternating between 10/1 and 8/1.

Azerbaijan 10/1

The only country to momentarily be ahead of Norway in the odds, on 17th March Paddypower had Azerbaijan at 2/1! By 22nd March it had changed to 10/1 and has mostly stayed there ever since.

Bosnia & Herzegovina 16/1

Now here's an example of one they didn't see. Two months ago Paddypower had Bosnia at 33/1. Their odds quickly began to shorten until they reached 8/1 on 7th May. They stayed there for a while but have now fallen to 16/1.

Ukraine 8/1

Ukraine has see-sawed a bit. Two months ago they were on 25/1, then lengthened to 50/1, then shot up dramatically to 16/1, then fell to 20/1 and now stand at 18/1.

Iceland 18/1

Iceland is another one they didn't see coming. Two months ago 50/1, then 33/1, then 28/1, then 12/1 after the first semi-final. They've now fallen back to 18/1.

France 25/1

Ok you're probably getting bored with reading all this now. Let's just say they've been broadly steady. I won't say anything unless there's been a big change now.

Estonia 40/1

Germany 40/1

Germany has seen the biggest jump of any country. Two months ago they were down at 150/1 to win the final. There they stayed for a few weeks until Dita von Tesse's involvement was confirmed and they shot up to 20/1.

Malta 40/1

Oh dear, you know things are bad when you're on the same odds as Germany. What happened? Two months ago Chiara was one of the favourites on 10/1 but she has slowly fallen, although has taken a big drop in the last few days.

Armenia 40/1

I don't get this, I would have had Armenia as one of the favourites still. They've done consistently well in the last few years and I've heard many people say it's one of their favourites. Starting off at 100/1 two months ago they rose to 80/1, then 33/1 and by the end of the first semi-final they stood at 25/1.

Finland 50/1

Sweden 50/1

Poor Sweden, another bookies' favourite that have been thrown on the scrapheap. Starting off at 16/1 they jumped to 12/1, then down to 14/1, then down down to 20/1 and now down down down down to 50/1!

Albania 50/1

Now, I've just said 50/1 is bad for Sweden, but it represents a huge jump for Albania who were down at 200/1 two months ago.

Denmark 66/1
Spain 66/1 - down from 25/1 two months ago.
Moldova 80/1 - up from 100/1 recently, but down from 50/1 two months ago.
Portugal 80/1
Romania 100/1 - Languished at 125/1 but then suddenly jumped to 40/1 a few days ago. Now settled back.
Russia 100/1 - down from 20/1 two months ago, quickly lengthened in the last few days.
Lithuania 100/1 - down from 50/1.
Israel 125/1 - was 80/1 for a long time and then jumped to 33/1. Plummeted to 100/1 after they drew the cursed 2nd place in the final, despite now having support from Paul McCartney.
Croatia 150/1 - an improvement on the 250/1 Paddypower had been offering before their surprise qualification, but it leaves them bottom of the pile in the final.

Odds taken from Paddypower

Norway 2010? Is it all over before it's even begun?

Alexander Rybak wins the Norwegian national final by a landslide.


In some ways it is. The juries will cast their votes tonight based on the performances during the 2nd dress rehearsal. Therefore by the end of tonight 50% of the Eurovision final votes will have been decided before the live televised show has even begun (although the results won't be revealed until the end of the show, along with the televotes).

Since the MGP final Alexander Rybak has been the overwhelming favourite. He won with 747,888 votes. The second place song only got 121,856! Every fan poll, including the respected OGAE poll, puts Norway at the top. Even the crowd at the Douze Points final held at Retro Bar in London voted Rybak their winner, and they've never successfully chosen the winning song! He's been the bookies' favourite from the beginning and his odds are now as short as 20/21, the shortest ever for a Eurovision final (Dima Bilan was at 4/1 before the final last year)! The Google Eurovision predictor which shows how popular each artist is based on search results has Rybak at the top, closely followed by Hadise. It seems every indicator is pointing to a Norwegian win this year.

I've been certain of a Norwegian win for months but Sakis' amazing performance last night sowed a few seeds of doubt in my mind. The act that may have sealed victory for Norway was the drawing last night of their position in the final. Norway will perform 20th. It's generally accepted that songs which perform towards the end of the show have an advantage.

At the end of the BBC broadcast last night Sarah Cawood suggested to UK final commentator Graham Norton that Greece might just win but Graham said,

"[Greece] is good, it's good, but something
like Norway is just more special".

Eurovision 2009 - the final

We now have the full running order for the 2009 Eurovision Song Contest final.

1. Lithuania
2. Israel
3. France
4. Sweden
5. Croatia
6. Portugal
7. Iceland
8. Greece
9. Armenia
10. Russia
11. Azerbaijan
12. Bosnia & Herzegovina
13. Moldova
14. Malta
15. Estonia
16. Denmark
17. Germany
18. Turkey
19. Albania
20. Norway
21. Ukraine
22. Romania
23. United Kingdom
24. Finland
25. Spain

Here's a Youtube playlist of all the entries in order (semi-final performances - 1st rehearsal performances for the Big 4 and Russia).

Semi-final 2 - the results

Semi-final 2 has now been and gone and these countries qualified:

Croatia
Norway
Denmark
Azerbaijan
Greece
Lithuania
Moldova
Albania
Ukraine
Estonia

I got 8 out 10 of these. Moldova wasn't a complete surprise but Croatia was! It was right at the bottom of my list. Greece pulled off an amazing performance, perhaps eclipsing Alexander Rybak.

Semi Final 2 - my prediction

Having correctly chosen 9 out the 10 qualifiers in semi final 1 the stage is set for me to fail abysmally with semi final 2. This is exactly what happened last year. Semi final 2 is much harder to call, there are the obvious choices like Ukraine, Greece and Norway but there are plenty that are much more borderline cases. Anyway, here's what I reckon will happen.

1. Ukraine
2. Norway
3. Greece
4. Azerbaijan
5. Slovenia
6. Albania
7. Denmark
8. Cyprus
9. Lithuania
10. Estonia

11. Slovakia
12. The Netherlands
13. Moldova
14. Ireland
15. Serbia
16. Latvia
17. Poland
18. Hungary
19. Croatia

I may have to change this some time tomorrow as I'm really not sure abotu the last 3. Estonia haven't qualified for some years but I think they could benefit from the jury vote. Slovakia have a lovely song but to me the vocals are dreadful. However, I've heard a lot of positive comments about it so we'll see.

1st qualifictions result in a shift in the betting odds

Here are the latest odds from Paddypower as of Tuesday 12th May (compared with odds from 10th May, 7th May, 10th April, 22nd March and 17th March in brackets). There have been more changes in just 2 days. Iceland have jumped from 28/1 to 12/1. Estonia fall from 28/1 to 50/1. Romania has jumped from 125/1 to 40/1 after their semi final qualification. Suprisingly despite qualifying Israel have fallen from 33/1 to 100/1.


1. Norway - 11/8 (11/8, 11/8, 11/8, 7/4, 7/4) ↔
2. Greece - 6/1 (6/1, 5/1, 5/1, 4/1, 4/1) ↔
=3. Bosnia & Herzegovina - 8/1 (8/1, 16/1, 20/1, 25/1, 33/1) ↔
=3. Turkey - 8/1 (8/1, 8/1, 8/1, 9/1, 10/1) ↔
5. Azerbaijan - 10/1 (16/1, 10/1, 10/1, 10/1, 2/1) ↑
6. Iceland - 12/1 (28/1, 28/1, 33/1, 33/1, 50/1) ↑
7. United Kingdom - 14/1 (16/1, 20/1, 20/1, 18/1, 18,1) ↑
8. Malta - 18/1, (25/1, 16/1, 16/1, 14/1, 10/1) ↑
=9. Ukraine - 20/1 (16/1, 16/1, 50/1, 50/1, 25/1)↓
=9. Germany - 20/1 (20/1, 33/1, 150/1, 150/1, 150/1) ↔
=9. Sweden - 20/1 (20/1, 14/1, 14/1, 12/1, 16/1) ↔
12. France - 22/1 (25/1, 25/1, 25/1, 25/1, 33/1) ↑
13. Armenia - 25/1 (33/1, 80/1, 80/1, 100/1) ↑
14. Finland - 28/1 (33/1, 33/1, 33/1, 33/1, 50/1) ↑
15. Spain - 33/1 (33/1, 33/1, 33/1, 25/1, 25/1) ↔
16. Romania - 40/1 (125/1, 125/1, 125/1, 125/1, 125/1) ↑
=17. Estonia - 50/1 (28/1, 25/1, 25/1, 33/1, 33/1) ↓
=17. Russia - 50/1 (33/1, 33/1, 33/1, 25/1, 20/1) ↓
19. Denmark - 66/1 (40/1, 40/1, 40/1, 33/1, 33/1) ↓
=20. Albania - 80/1 (50/1, 50/1, 50/1, 200/1, 200/1) ↓
=20. Portugal - 80/1 (66/1, 66/1, 66/1, 100/1, 100/1) ↓
=20. Ireland - 80/1 (80/1, 80/1, 66/1, 50/1, 33/1) ↔
=20. Serbia - 80/1 (80/1, 80/1, 80/1, 50/1, 25/1) ↔
=24. Israel - 100/1 (33/1, 33/1, 33/1, 80/1, 80/1) ↓
=24. Netherlands - 100/1 (150/1, 150/1, 150/1, 150/1, 150/1) ↑
=24. Moldova - 100/1 (100/1, 66/1, 66/1, 66/1, 50/1) ↔
=24. Lithuania - 100/1 (40/1, 40/1, 40/1, 40/1, 50/1) ↓
=24. Croatia - 100/1 (250/1, 250/1, 250/1, 200/1) ↑
29. Slovenia - 150/1 (150/1, 150/1, 100/1, 66/1) ↔
30. Cyprus - 200/1 (250/1, 250/1, 250/1, 150/1, 100/1) ↑
=31. Poland - 250/1 (150/1, 150/1, 150/1, 125/1, 125/1) ↓
=31. Latvia - 250/1 (250/1, 250/1, 250/1, 250/1, 150/1) ↔
=33. Hungary - 300/1 (200/1, 200/1, 200/1, 200/1, 125/1) ↓
=33. Slovakia - 300/1 (300/1, 300/1, 300/1, 250/1, 150/1) ↔

The first 10 qualifiers

The first semi-final is now over and we have our first 10 qualifiers for the final on Saturday:

Turkey
Sweden
Israel
Portugal
Malta
Finland
Bosnia & Herzegovina
Romania
Armenia
Iceland

So how did I do with my predictions? Well I was torn between Belarus and Finland. If I had chosen Finland I would have correctly chosen 10 out of 10 but it's 9 out of 10 this year for semi-final 1.

Iceland pulled off perhaps the strongest performance of the night with perfect vocals but had to wait nervously to be revealed as the 10th qualifier.



Sweden was a real disappointment. Luckily they get another chance in the final.



Belarus was a big surprise. They performed much better than I expected and should have qualified, but it wasn't to be.

Semi Final 1 - my prediction

Here are the entries taking part in the first semi final in running order with their bookies odds (to win the semi final) and my prediction.

1. Montenegro: Andrea Demirovic - Just Get Out Of My Life - 14/1 - My ranking 12th

Nice to listen to but somehow doesn't work in Eurovision for me. The dancing is slightly cringeworthy and the vocals aren't too strong.

1st Rehearsal video
Music video

2. Czech Republic: Gipsy.cz - Aven Romale - 150/1 - My ranking 17th

Horrible song but quite fun to watch on stage. It's only hope is a few eastern bloc votes.

1st Rehearsal video
Music video

3. Belarus: Petr Elfimov - Eyes That Never Lie - 125/1 - My ranking 10th (QUALIFIER)

A very typical Belarusian entry. This has grown on me and depsite looking like a man battling to put the cover on a duvet the man in a sheet blowing in the wind looks good when the flames are projected on it. I think it's just enough for this to qualify.

1st Rehearsal video
Music video

4. Belgium: Copycat - Copycat - 50/1 - My ranking 16th

Ooh this man looks greasy and awful. I don't like this at all.

1st Rehearsal video
Music video

5. Sweden: Malena Ernman - La Voix - 6/1 - My ranking 6th (QUALIFIER)

Her bizarre facial expressions may scare off a few viewers and the verses leave a lot to be desired but overall this is an good and very interesting song.

1st Rehearsal video
Music video

6. Armenia: Inga & Anush - Jan Jan - 10/1 - My ranking 1st (QUALIFIER) WINNER 1st SEMI FINAL

This song has grown on me immensely. I really think this might be the semi final 1 winner and strong contender for a top 5 place in the final.

1st Rehearsal video
Music video

7. Andorra: Susanne Georgi - Get A Life - 125/1 - My ranking 18th LAST PLACE

She looks like she's never picked up a guitar before, her smiling looks very fake and it's just generally awful. They should stop moaning about Spain not voting in semi final 1, they never stood a chance of qualifying anyway.

1st Rehearsal video
Music video

8. Switzerland: Lovebugs - The Highest Heights - 33/1 - My ranking 15th

A lot of fans really like this and I admit there are moments it sounds a bit like Coldplay but overall it's very boring. Switzerland haven't qualified for years, I don't expect this to do any better.

1st Rehearsal video
Music video

9. Turkey: Hadise - Düm Tek Tek - 15/8 - My ranking 3rd (QUALIFIER)

I've found her rehearsals a bit disappointing vocally but it's still catchy enough to qualify and qualify well.

1st Rehearsal video
Music video

10. Israel - Noa & Mira Awad - There Must Be Another Way - 40/1 - My ranking 8th (QUALIFIER)

I absolutely hated this song at first. The harmonies grate at some points in the song but it seems to work very well on stage and I've heard a lot of positive comments.

1st Rehearsal video
Music video

11. Bulgaria - Krassimir Avramov - Illusion - 80/1 - My ranking 13th

Seems quite impressive in the video but performed live this looks like some kind of parody. Unfortunately this is not a joke and I don't think many people will vote for it.

1st Rehearsal video
Music video

12. Iceland - Yohanna - Is It True - 14/1 - My ranking 5th (QUALIFIER)

A lovely sweet song. The vocals are probably the strongest in this semi final.

1st Rehearsal video
Music video

13. FYR Macedonia - Next Time - Neshto Shto Ke Ostan - 100/1 - My ranking 14th

Oh I'd forgotten about this song. Probably best not to try and remember it.

1st Rehearsal video
Music video

14. Romania - Elena - The Balkan Girls - 40/1 - My ranking 9th

I wouldn't normally expect a song like this to qualify but Elena brings so much energy to the stage and her vocals are very strong. I think it will qualify (just).

1st rehearsal video
Music video

15. Finland: Waldo's People - Lose Control - 12/1 - My ranking 11th

Good music video but unfortunately doesn't translate into a good performance. Makes me think too much of Bulgaria's entry last year which failed to qualify. May be saved by high scores from Sweden and Iceland but I still don't see it qualifying.

1st rehearsal video
Music video

16. Portugal: Flor-de-lis - Todas As Ruas Do Amor - 40/1 - My ranking 7th (QUALIFIER)

This kind of song is not normally my thing but it's very pleasant. The backdrop is horrendous but I don't think that will stop people voting for this song in their droves.

1st rehearsal video
National final video

17. Malta: Chiara - What If We - 6/1 - My ranking 4th (QUALIFIER)

She sounds like a vocoder at some points. Maybe her vocals are just a little too perfect. Chiara has had two strong placings in the past finals but this is probably her weakest entry yet. I think she'll qualify strongly based on her place in the running order.

1st rehearsal video
Music video

18. Bosnia & Herzegovina: Regina - Bistro Voda - 7/4 FAVOURITE - My ranking 2nd (QUALIFIER)

This is a little gem. Not particularly favoured with the bookies before the dress rehearsals it is now the favourite to win the first semi final. I was close to putting this as my first place tip but I'm going to settle for 2nd place.

1st rehearsal video
Music video
Dress rehearsal video

RECAP

The Ones That Didn't Make It

As we prepare to go into Eurovision week spare a thought for those that came so close to representing their countries at this year's contest but ultimately didn't win their national finals.

Denmark

Denmark had a very strong national final line-up. Ultimately won by Brinck, Hera Björk came 2nd with her song 'Someday'.



Despite losing out to Brinck, Hera will still be on the Eurovision stage this year as a backing singer for Iceland's entry. She even got to perform 'Someday' at the Icelandic party held at the Icelandic Ambassador's Residence in Moscow.




Norway
Norway also had a strong national final. Although thoroughly beaten into 2nd place (Alexander Rybak got 747,888 votes to her 121,856) Tone Damli Aaberge's song 'Butterflies' was a great song in its own right.



Sweden
The voting in this year's Melodifestivalen final was possibly the most dramatic ever. If the juries had had their way Måns Zelmerlöw would have gone to Moscow with 'Hope & Glory'.



Ultimately once the televotes were added to the scoreboard Malena Ernmann shot up to 1st place and Caroline af Ugglas ended in 2nd place with 'Snälla snälla', a song that only made it to the final through the Andra Chansen round.



Russia
Although the 3 super-finalists were chosen by televoting the ultimate winner was determined by a jury. Losing out to Anastasiya Prikhodko by 6 votes to 5 Valeriya was seen by many as a much better contender with her song 'Back To love'.



United Kingdom
After a string of poor results the UK opted for a different method of choosing their entry this year. After the popularity of Andrew Lloyd Webber's prime-time talent shows to choose lead roles for his west end musicals it was decided to use a similar format to choose the UK entrant. All 3 finalists sang 'My Time', the song written by ALW and Dianne Warren. Jade won and 'The Twins' Francine and Nicola Gleadall came second.

UK first rehearsal

The mysterious prop is a staircase! And not a very big one at that. I thought visually it looked a bit weak on this video but I think it will really benefit from good camera angles on the night. The UK really is heading for its best result in 8 years. I don't think there's any chance of a win but whereas previously I was hoping for top 15, I think there's a distinct possibility of a top 5 place for this song.

UK press in usual snooty attitude to Eurovision

It's not the fact the UK press see Eurovision as a big joke that annoys me, it's the way they look down their nose at the rest of Europe as if the UK would win every year if it wan't for the bizarre Europeans voting for rubbish songs or just for their neighbours. Today's Independent article illustrates this perfectly.

"As these pictures show, rehearsals and national heats have been taking place with the emphasis on garish costumes, ludicrous haricuts and presumably singing, as well."

They showed a picture of Serbia! I 'presume' the use of that word means they haven't actually bothered to listen to any of the entries and just chosen the craziest looking photo from the Getty Images feed. I used my right to reply:

"Oh you would pick a photo of the Serbian entry, possibly the ugliest and worst entry this year. Of course there are a couple of bizarre and eccentric entries this year but that's what makes Eurovision fun. There has been some fantastic singing from Iceland in the rehearsals, and let's not forget the Norwegian entry - 'Fairytale' by Alexander Rybak - that has won every internet poll hands down and is currently top of the betting odds. This will be an exciting Eurovision year and for once the UK has a decent chance. Please don't dumb it down by focusing on the worst entries."

http://www.independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/music/features/strange-sights-at-eurovision-1680888.html

Norway win Douze Points final

They may have never succesfully predicted a Eurovision winner but the Douze Points crowd followed all the fan voting, the betting odds and even Google's mysterious prediction by voting Norway the overwhelming winner.

1. Norway - 177 points
2. United Kingdom - 123 points
3. Sweden
4. Greece
5. Ukraine

Last place went to Russia.

Here's a video of the Retro Bar crowd singing along to the UK entry.

Douze Points final tonight

Tonight is the Douze Points final at Retro Bar in London. This from their website:

"Douze Points is the oldest Eurovision Theme night in London. It takes place every second Thursday of the month from 8.30pm in the Retro Bar on George Court, London (Just off the Strand). It has been running since 1999 and provides the perfect opportunity for Eurovision fans to meet up and enjoy a great night out!"

"In April, we show all the songs that will be competing in the semi final. The songs that come out on top then qualify for our Preselection contest in May, when we show all the videos of the songs that qualified in April, along with the remaining songs. Everyone is divided into juries to vote on the songs and a winner is decided. We have yet to predict a winner!"

This is very true. Look at previous Douze Points winners:

2008 - Iceland - Euroband - This is my life
2007 - Switzerland - DJ Bobo - Vampires are alive
2006 - Germany - Texas Lightening - No no never
2005 - Hungary - Nox - Forogj Vilag
2004 - Sweden - Lena Phillipsson - It Hurts
2003 - Latvia - F.L.Y - Hello from Mars
2002 - Germany - Corrina May - Can't live without music
2001 - Slovenia - Nusa Derender - Energy
2000 - Netherlands - Linda Waggenmaaker - No Goodbyes

The finalists are: Montenegro, Switzerland, France, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Turkey, Azerbaijan, Slovenia, Sweden, Iceland, Russia, Armenia, Ukraine, Norway, Estonia, Finland, Portugal, Germany, Malta, Albania, Hungary, Denmark, Greece, United Kingdom, Ireland, Spain.

I think the winner will be between Sweden, Spain and Ukraine.

Loveeurovision will be there tonight and will let you know the winner on Twitter.

http://www.twitter.com/loveeurovision

http://www.douzepoints.org/

BT Eurovictory

BT have launched a campaign fronted by Katrina of Katrina & The Waves fame to get people to call their European friends to persuade them to vote for the UK on the 16th May. Cynical ploy to sell their international calling packages or cynical belief that Eurovision is all about tactical voting? You decide.



http://www.eurovision.bt.com/

SBS - Eurovision from an Australian perspective

http://www.sbs.com.au/blog/107838/Eurovision-2009

Google prediction

Google have created the iGoogle 'Predictor' gadget to forecast the Eurovision winner based on Google search data. This chart is changing all the time. Alexander Rybak was leading the chart for Norway with 328 points.

Tinatin blogs from Moscow

Tinatin Japaridze is one of the writers of this year's Icelandic entry 'Is It True?'. Born in Georgia and raised in Moscow Tinatin now lives in New York. On her blog she explains how she came to be involved with the Icelandic entry:

Almost a decade - and many songs - later, I got a call from Reykjavik in October, from my long-time collaborator (and very well-known Icelandic songwriter/producer) Oskar Pall Sveinsson (known for his UK & US hits as Oskar Paul). He asked if I had any objections to his idea of pitching a song we had co-written together with the legendary producer Christopher Neil, as a possible contender to represent Iceland at the upcoming Eurovision Song Contest in May of 2009.

"We'll have to find an Icelandic artist to sing the song in order to qualify, but a multi-national songwriting team should go down well in the pre-selection process," Oskar promised. "And besides, the contest will be held in Moscow next year - could it be any better for you?"

She's currently in Moscow with the rest of the Icelandic delegation and busy blogging about her experiences. Read her blog here (opens in a new window).

You can listen to the original demo of 'Is It True' featuring Tinatin's vocals through the widget below.




Tinatin's Myspace http://www.myspace.com/tinatinmusic
Tinatin's Twitter http://twitter.com/TinatinMusic

Mihai Trăistariu reviews the entries on eurovisionary.com

Mihai Trăistariu, Romania's entrant from 2006 has been reviewing the entries for eurovisionary.com. I found his opinions quite entertaining so I thought I'd share them with you. Click here for the full article.

Russia - 'worst song ever for Russia'.
Serbia - 'This kind of parody song is not for Eurovision'.
Slovakia - 'The girl is screaming without sense'.
Slovenia - 'the girl screaming?...Why does she appear? Were the violins not enough?'
Sweden - 'high chances to enter in the top 5'.
Turkey - 'most likely song to win this year'.
UK - 'I think she will reach the top 10 with this song'.
Ukraine - 'She is not vulgar and that is good.'

http://www.eurovisionary.com

Norway - not always so successful

Norway managed a surprise 5th place in Serbia last year and judging by all polls and the betting odds looks set to win this year. This from a country that has the record for coming last the most times (10 times) and receiving nul points the most often (4 times). I really don't think they deserved their joint last place in 2001. This powerful ballad only received 3 points. Then again, he does look a bit scary.

OGAE voting update - Norway well ahead

Norway is the overwhelming favourite with the OGAE juries this year. Just look at the latest scoreboard:

1	Norway	311	↔
2	France	176	↔
3	Sweden	167	↔
4	Bosnia & Herzegovina	142	↔
5	Spain	128	↔
6	Azerbaijan	125	↔
7	Greece	112	↔
8	Iceland	102	↔
9	Turkey	88	↔
10	United Kingdom	85	↔
11	Estonia	74	↔
12	Finland	55	↔
13	Denmark	41	↔
14	Ukraine	36	↑
15	Switzerland	34	↓
16	Portugal	28	↓
17	Lithuania	27	↔
18	Malta	21	↔
19	Israel	20	↔
20	Armenia	17	↔
21	Albania	12	↔
22	Romania	9	↔
-.	Montenegro	9	↑
24	Russia	8	↓
-.	Slovenia	8	↓
26	Moldova	6	↔
27	Germany	5	↔
28	Croatia	4	↔
29	Ireland	2	↔
-.	Cyprus	2	↔
-.	Bulgaria	2	↔
32	Slovakia	1	↔

Is Jade on course for 12 points from Russia?

Since Jade sang 'It's My Time' at the Russian national final in March there has been significant interest in the UK entry, culminating in the Russian OK! Magazine giving away a free copy of her single with the latest issue of the magazine. It has already sold over 100,000 copies in Russia and the Ukraine. MTV Russia has thrown its support behind Jade by running an advert delcaring, 'Support Russia, but vote for UK!' OGAE Russia also gave their 12 points to the UK.

So what does this mean for the UK? Can we really expect 12 points from Russia in the final this year? The last time Russia gave the UK 12 points was back in 1997 when the Russian jury gave 'Love Shine A Light' their maximum points. However, when Jessica Garlick came 3rd in 2002 with 'Come Back' the Russian jury didn't give the UK any points at all! They did however give 'No Dream Impossible' 3 points the year before. The only points Russia has awarded to the UK since they started using televoting was in 2005 when they gave James Fox 1 point for 'Hold On To Our Love'.

What was lacking in previous years of course was such a media frenzy behind the UK song. With a mix of jury vote and televoting this year maybe we should start to get excited that there's a real chance of our first 12 points from Russia since 1997. There will surely be stiff competition from Norway's Alexander Rybak (born in Minsk and a Russian speaker) and also Ukraine.

MTV Russia's advert supporting Jade



Jade's performance at the Russian final

Jade Ewen's promo tour continues

'My Time' must be the the most heavily promoted UK Eurovision entry of all time. Jade has performed in over half the countries taking part in the Eurovision voting. Her latest performance was on Poland's version of Strictly Come Dancing where she performed with a live orchestra. It's such a shame the live orchestra hasn't made an appearance in the actual Eurovision Song Contest since 1998 in Birmingham.

Rehearsals begin

Rehearsals have begun at the Olympiyski Indoor Arena in Moscow. The stage looks amazing. Videos are available at the offical Eurovision Youtube channel here.

Iceland - First Rehearsal

UK staging revealed

The BBC have made the following announcements on Twitter regarding the UK staging:

22/04: We have chosen the violinists. All very handsome and will look extremely dashing in their (to be revealed) costumes. - Helen (Producer)

23/04: Our big prop is on its way to Russia. It left Blighty last week and hopefully it will arrive in Moscow before May 8th... - Helen (Producer)

So it seems the performance will be Jade singing, Andrew Lloyd Webber on piano, four dashing violinists and a 'big prop'. Sounds very mysterious. We won't actually hear the violinists playing live as the rules state that only a backing track may be used. I think it would be much better to have four backing singers as they'd really help lift the song and the violins would still be on the backing track anyway. Leave the violins to Norway and Slovenia.

We'll see on 16th May if it works or not.

Norway still leads OGAE voting

Cyprus are the latest OGAE branch to give their votes.

12 Sweden (252 votes)
10 Norway (248 votes)
8 Azerbaijan (225 votes)
7 Spain (198 votes)
6 France (173 votes)
5 Iceland (138 votes)
4 Greece (108 votes)
3 Albania (101 votes)
2 Bulgaria (97 votes)
1 Bosnia & Herzegovina (94 votes)

16 national branches have now voted and the scoreboard looks like this:

1 Norway 171 ↔
2 France 84 ↔
3 Sweden 83 ↔
4 Spain 74 ↔
5 Bosnia & Herzegovina 65 ↔
6 Azerbaijan 61 ↔
7 Iceland 52 ↔
8 Turkey 47
9 Greece 46 ↔
10 United Kingdom 38 ↔
11 Estonia 37 ↔
12 Finland 28 ↔
13 Lithuania 24 ↔
14 Portugal 23 ↔
15 Israel 15 ↔
16 Malta 13 ↔
-. Denmark 13 ↔
18 Albania 8 ↑
19 Slovenia 7 ↓
20 Romania 5 ↓
-. Montenegro 5 ↓
-. Germany 5 ↓
-. Moldova 5 ↓
24 Switzerland 4 ↔
-. Ukraine 4 ↔
26 Russia 3 ↔
27 Ireland 2 ↔
-. Cyprus 2 ↔
-. Bulgaria 2 (N)
30 Croatia 1 ↓
-. Slovakia 1 ↓

Can we predict the winner?

It's tempting to read too much into internet polls. In previous years fan polls have favoured songs that either didn't qualify or fared badly in the final, songs such as 'DJ Bobo - Vampires Are Alive', 'Charlotte Perrelli - Hero', 'Kate Ryan - Je t'adore'. I remember distinctly in 1999 Cyprus was leading all the fan polls. That year Cyprus finished 2nd from last with only 2 points from the UK (see video below). The OGAE voting so far heavily favours Norway. That mirrors nearly every poll on the internet, which is a very good indicator Norway will win this year. However, let's look at the OGAE scoreboard from 2008:

1. Sweden 296 (12th in Semi-final 2 - jury wildcard - 15th in final)
2. Switzerland 194 (13th in Semi-final 2 - didn't qualify for final)
3. Serbia 166 (6th place)
4. Armenia 134 (5th place)
5. Ukraine 133 (2nd place)
6. Norway 130 (5th place)
7. Iceland 129 (14th place)
8. Portugal l86 (13th place)
9. Russia 73 (1st place)
10. Romania 62 (20th place)
11. Greece 59 (3rd place)
12. Turkey 39 (7th place)

Sweden was the clear OGAE favourite in 2008, as in many other polls, but only just scraped through to the final thanks to the jury wildcard and crashed out in 15th place. Switzerland, another fan favourite in 2008 didn't even qualify for the final. The winning country, Russia, was only 9th in the OGAE voting. This should make us wary of Norway's clear lead in the OGAE voting, but how does it compare to other ways of predicting the winnner?

Betting Odds

Russia was the bookies favourite last year, followed by Ukraine and Armenia and belatedly, Greece. The bookies have correctly predicted the winning song every year since Greece won in 2005. So, who is the bookies' favourite this year? Norway :-)

Cyprus 1999 - Marlain - Tha'ne Erotas (fan favourite - 22nd place in the final)

Download the Eurovision 2009 album now

The Eurovision Song Contest 2009 album is now available to download from iTunes. It's currently only available in participating countries. The CD will be released 1st May (8th May in Australia).

According to iTunes the top songs are currently:

Be My Valentine (Anti-crisis Girl) - Ukraine
Lose Control - Finland
Illusion - Bulgaria
Is It True? - Iceland
Miss Kiss Kiss Bang - Germany

Eurovision Song Contest 2009 Various Artists Release Date: 17 Apr 2009 Genre: Pop ℗ 2009 The copyright in this compilation is owned by CMC Entertainment A/S

I'm off to Amsterdam - follow me on Twitter

God I haven't had any sleep! I'll shortly be off to Amsterdam for tonight's Eurovision concert. You can follow my updates on Twitter:

http://twitter.com/loveeurovision

UK Eurovision Preview Party

Despite being slightly overshadowed by the huge Eurovision concert taking place in Amsterdam tomorrow the team behind the UK Eurovision Preview Party managed to pull off a fantastic show. Ukraine's Svetlana Loboda was the biggest surprise for me. When I first heard the song I thought it was terrible but they've really worked on the performance and it's very routine-heavy with four muscular Ukrainian men and two backing singers with Amy Winehouse beehives. It's gone from perhaps one of my least favourite entries this year to one of the ones I'm really looking forward to seeing performed in Moscow.

The Romanian and Icelandic acts also pulled off great performances. For me personally Poland, Cyprus and Bulgaria didn't have much impact.

A highlight of the night was the return of Imaani and Jessica Garlick who both performed their past Eurovision entries, 'Where Are You' and 'Come Back'. It was great to see two of our most successful Eurovision acts of recent times and they both gave great performances.

Oh and finally how could I forget Friðrik Ómar. He treated us to a wonderful candlelight/ballad version of 'This Is My Life', before launching back into the eurodance anthem that we know and love.

All in all what I was expecting to be a dull precursor to Amsterdam tomorrow actually turned out to be a great night in its own right.

I've uploaded videos to my Youtube channel:http://www.youtube.com/LoveEurovision

and you can see some photos on my Photobucket page.

You can see Imaani's performance below:

Eurovision In Concert 2009 - Amsterdam

Coming just a day after the UK Eurovision Preview Party this has somewhat stolen London's thunder. Over 20 acts are confirmed to perform, that's nearly half the entries. LoveEurovision will be there and is particularly looking forward to seeing the UK, Bosnia and Måns Zelmerlöw perform.

The following 22 countries have among others already confirmed :

* Denmark: Niels Brinck - Believe
* Belgium: Copycat- Copycat
* Iceland: Jóhanna - Is it true?
* Montenegro: Andrea Demirovic - Get out of my life
* Cyprus: Christina Metaxa - Firefly
* Lithuania: Sasha Son -Love
* Bulgaria: Krassimir - Illusion
* Slovenia: Quartissimo - Love Symphony
* Albania: Kejsi Tola - Carry me in your dreams
* Bosnia and Herzegovina: Regina -Bistra Voda
* Poland: Lidia Kopania - I don't wanna leave
* Armenia: Inga & Anush - Jan jan
* Moldova: Nelly Ciobanu - Hora din Moldova
* Malta: Chiara - What if we
* Spain: Soraya - La noche es para mí
* Romania - Elena Gheorghe - The Balkan Girls
* Belarus - Petr Elfimov - Eyes that never lie
* Ireland - Sinéad Mulvey & Black Daisy - Et cetera
* United Kingdom - Jade - My Time
* Serbia: Marko Kon & Milan Nikolic - Cipela
* Ukraine: Svetlana Loboda - Be my Valentine (Anti-crisis girl)
* Slovakia: Kamil Mikulcík & Nela Pocisková - Let tmou

Special guest
* Swedish popstar Måns Zelmerlöw
* Dutch divas afterparty

The concert begins at 9pm and the whole event last until 5am. Tickets are €20 in advance and €25 on the door.

More information can be found here.

Thingbox.com poll

Only 8 members have voted so far but here are the results. Once again, Norway are in the lead.

1. Norway 88
2. Sweden 84
3. Iceland 54
4. Estonia 49
5. United Kingdom 35
6. France 33
7. Greece 31
8. Switzerland 28
9. Malta 27
10. Montenegro 23
=11. Bosnia & Herzegovina 18
=11. Finland 18
=11. Slovenia 18
14. Spain 15
15. Bulgaria 12
16. Turkey 10
17. Ireland 7
18. Andorra 6
19. Lithuania 5
=20. Albania 4
=20. Moldova 4
=20. Romania 4
=20. Portugal 4
24. Belgium 3
25. Cyprus 1

Thingbox

UK 2009 - Jade Ewan - My Time

Ooh the BBC have released the official video for 'My Time'. It's rumoured to have taken so long because Andrew Lloyd Webber didn't like the first one and had it re-shot. The video gives us some idea of how the song will be performed in the final, with Jade in a lovely frock and ALW in the background playing the piano. I just hope they don't make use of the other 4 performers they're allowed on stage under Eurovision rules. Four backing singers would really help lift the song. Here's
the video:



JADE's PROMO TOUR

Jade has been busy performing her entry all over Europe. I think it's really helped her develop the live performance. I'm still quite surprised her betting odds are still 18/1. I think it has a good chance of a top 4 finish, especially with it's placing near the end of the final.

UKRAINE



RUSSIA



BOSNIA



GREECE



MALTA



BBC YOUR COUNTRY NEEDS YOU FINAL




CLUB REMIX

The 4 track DJ promo has been doing the rounds of the radio stations and already appeared on Youtube. They've done their best but it's really not the easiest song to do a club remix of:

Semifinal Predictions

Here goes with my predictions for this year's qualifiers. My predictions have generally been quite accurate in the past so let's see how I do this time around.

Semi 1

Turkey
Bosnia
Armenia
Malta
Iceland
Sweden
Portugal
Bulgaria
Romania
Belarus

Semi 2

Norway
Slovenia
Greece
Azerbaijan
Denmark
Ukraine
Moldova
Albania
Latvia
Lithuania

Melodifestivalen - Russia doesn't see the funny side

The Russian embassy in Stockholm has complained of what it sees as a 'digusting' portrayal of Russia during a comedy interlude at the Melodifestivalen final.

The full story can be read here.

Or you can just watch the performance below.

Where to see Eurovision in the UK

There are all manner of bars and cinemas showing the Eurovision final. Seeing Eurovision on the big screen with full cinema sound is a great experience, but it may not be to everyone's taste if you prefer your Euovision party with drinking games galore. Please not that at many of these venues tickets are not yet on sale.

The Harcourt Arms, London

THE place to see Melodifesivalen, the Harcourt Arms also shows the Eurovision final. Demand was so high in 2007 they also used the Thornbury Castle pub round the corner. Tickets are either standing in the bar or seated in the lounge with table service. Tickets usually include a free Koppparberg pear cider of bottled beer.

For more information see http://www.theharcourt.com

Greenwich Picture House, London

Call the box office for ticket information on 0871 704 2059

or see http://www.picturehouses.co.uk/site/cinemas/Greenwich/local.html

Duke Of York's, Brighton

Call the box office for ticket information on

or see http://www.picturehouses.co.uk/cinema_home_date.aspx?venueId=doyb

Some other Picturehouse Cinemas may be showing Eurovision. More events will be added as I come across them. If you know of an event please email me at tomskinneruk@yahoo.co.uk